Research & Insights

The Transition from TradFi to DeFi

$100's of Billions in TVL (Total Value Locked) in DeFi protocols shows the rapid movement of capital away from traditional banks.
Self-custody & Smart Contracts are revolutionizing how users interact with finance, removing intermediaries.
The rise of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization is bringing traditional finance on-chain, merging old and new economies.

🔍 Insight: The financial world is moving toward tokenization, and those who understand on-chain data have the edge.

Key Thesis: AI agents will need crypto rails for autonomous transactions.

Current Data:
- 72% of AI devs now building on-chain (Electric Capital 2023)
- Render Network (RNDR): 450% GPU capacity growth YoY → AI media demand
My Prediction:
- 2026: AI-driven DAOs outperform FAANG stocks
- 2028: 40% of AI training paid via crypto micropayments
Actionable Insight: Accumulate compute tokens (RNDR, TAO, AKT) and oracle protocols (LINK, PYTH)

Web2 platforms (Google, Facebook, Amazon) rely on centralized control, while Web3 (Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum) enables user ownership through tokens.
Decentralized Identity (DID) & NFT-based access are shifting digital ownership to individuals.
The gaming and creator economy is evolving with Play-to-Earn (P2E) & SocialFi models, disrupting traditional monetization.

🔍 Insight: Web3 is not just about money—it’s about sovereignty over data, assets, and identity.

Breakout trading, momentum strategies, and liquidity hunting are key to capturing short-term market moves.
On-chain analytics tools (DEX Screener, TradingView, Glassnode) allow traders to detect whale movements, token unlocks, and supply shifts.
AI-driven automated trading bots and quant-based strategies are becoming dominant, giving retail traders a way to scale.

🔍 Insight: Mastering both technical and on-chain data is critical to trading success in the new digital economy.

AI-driven finance (Robo-advisors, sentiment trading, generative strategies) is replacing traditional TA-based trading.
VR & AR Metaverse adoption is slow but inevitable—big players like Meta, Apple, and Nvidia are betting on the shift.
AI-powered DeFi aggregators are optimizing yield strategies for passive crypto income.

🔍 Insight: The intersection of AI, Web3, and finance is the next frontier. Staying ahead requires deep research and adaptation.

Monitoring Market Trends : We track and analyze the latest market trends, including price movements, trading volumes, and sentiment on social media platforms like Twitter, Reddit, and Discord.
Sentiment Analysis : Using natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning, we gauge market sentiment to identify bullish and bearish signals.

Blockchain Metrics : We delve into on-chain metrics such as transaction volume, wallet growth, network activity, and gas fees to understand the health and adoption of different blockchains.
Tokenomics : We analyze the token economics of various projects, including supply schedules, distribution models, and staking rewards, to evaluate their long-term sustainability and value proposition.
Smart Contract Audits : We review and audit smart contracts to ensure security and identify potential vulnerabilities.

Project Evaluation : We conduct in-depth research on blockchain projects, evaluating their technical feasibility, market potential, and competitive landscape.
White Paper Analysis : We read and analyze white papers to understand the underlying technology and business models of new and existing projects.
Economic Models : We build and maintain financial models to assess the economic viability of different blockchain and DeFi projects.

Statistical Analysis : We use statistical methods to analyze market data, identify patterns, and make predictions.
Financial Modeling : We create detailed financial models to evaluate the performance and potential of various crypto assets and DeFi protocols.
Risk Management : We develop and implement risk management strategies to protect against market volatility and ensure optimal portfolio performance.

Blockchain Explorers : We leverage platforms like Etherscan , Solscan , and BscScan to monitor and analyze blockchain transactions.
On-Chain Analytics Platforms : We utilize Dune Analytics , Glassnode , and Nansen to gain deep insights into on-chain activity and market trends.
Trading Platforms : We are proficient in using TradingView , CoinGecko , and CoinMarketCap to track market data and execute trading strategies.

2024-2025 Playbook:

BlackRock’s Move: BUIDL fund ($1B+ inflows in 90 days) → institutional validation
Top Sectors:
1. Treasury Bonds (Ondo Finance: $200M TVL)
2. Real Estate (Propy, Parcl)
3. Private Equity (Maple Finance)

Unique 2024 Dynamics:

ETFs changed the game: 85% of inflows from institutions (vs. 15% in 2020)
Miner resilience: Public miners 300% better capitalized than 2020
Price Prediction:
- Base case: $120K by Q1 2025
- Bear case: $60K (if recession hits)
- Bull case: $250K (hyper-bitcoinization trigger)
My Strategy: Hold spot BTC + short-term ETH calls

Borrowing from VFX Pipeline:

Case Study:
- Bored Apes: 23% floor price correlation with ETH gas fees
- Pudgy Penguins: 170% ROI post-Walmart toy deal (retail x NFT synergy)
- Toolkit: Blender + Nansen NFT Paradise + Tensor charts

VFX/TA Convergence Score:
- Combines VFX compositing principles with technical analysis
- Predicted 2023’s ARB (+90%) and PEPE (+12,000%) pumps
Narrative Fatigue Index:
- Flags dying trends (2023: "MetaFi") using Google Trends + whale wallets
Stoic Greed/Fear Gauge:
- Mindfulness + RSI + funding rates → avoid emotional trading

Business Cycle & Global Liquidity:
- The current cycle mirrors the 2017 Trump era, with a weakening dollar expected to boost global liquidity (Global M2).
- China’s potential stimulus (QE) could drive liquidity, similar to past cycles, supporting risk assets like crypto and equities.
- ISM Index (business cycle indicator) is rising, signaling economic expansion. Historically, Bitcoin peaks when ISM peaks (likely 9+ months away).
Inflation & Rates:
- Inflation concerns are overblown; wage growth and shelter costs (CPI components) are declining.
- Fed rate cuts and Chinese easing could lower rates, supporting asset prices.
Dollar Weakness:
- A weaker dollar (driven by tariffs, policy shifts) is critical for liquidity and risk asset rallies.

Bitcoin (BTC):
- Follows Global M2 trends; expects decoupling post-consolidation. Long-term target aligns with ISM acceleration (potential for $250K+).
- Current correction phase ("Banana Zone" part 1) precedes a larger rally.
Altcoins & Altseason:
- Altseason likely as ISM rises. ETH, SOL, SUI, and DOGE highlighted:
  - Ethereum (ETH): Undervalued; backbone of DeFi/NFTs. Expects outperformance post-consolidation.
  - Solana (SOL): Breaking out; technicals suggest $1,000+ target.
  - SUI & DeepBook: Strong chart patterns; Raoul is accumulating.
  - Dogecoin (DOGE): Meme-driven but could outperform BTC again. "Hardest money" narrative as a joke.

Schedule a Call

venu@immersible.io

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